The Case for Global Optimism
"I've decided to not have kids because of climate change," says your smug friend over brunch, a bit proud of the moral high ground they just claimed. You can almost see a fake teardrop fall into their mimosa as they stuff their face with more lemon ricotta pancake.
"How could anyone sane bring kids into a world like this?" they continue.
Ugh. Enough. Shut up.
We have all heard a version of this, and it's annoying as hell. Based on the slight information my dumb little brain can manage, I think these people are wrong.
I have much more optimistic views about the future of humanity. Honestly, maybe it is better if these negative people don't bring any more sad-ass kids to bum out us in the future. Leave the procreation to those who believe in human potential and ingenuity and let the lineages of downers and haters die out.
Buh-bye human haters. And don't worry, your cats are in good hands. Just let someone know where to find the kitty litter on your way out.
Here's what I have come to believe:
We will fix climate change
Average global temperatures will probably rise about 3% by 2100 vs. pre-industrial times. This is manageable compared to the apocalyptic 4-8% previously thought likely scenarios.
This is due to genuine changes that happened in the last decade like:
Wind energy got three times cheaper, while solar energy got 10 times cheaper. It is now cheaper to build new solar plants than to operate existing coal plants. This trend will only continue, and our energy will become cleaner.
The price of lithium-ion batteries, required for renewable energies, dropped 60% in the last decade, and most lithium-ion batteries are being recycled.
In some countries like Denmark, 80% of new cars are electric. Other countries will follow this trend.
Carbon capture technology didn't exist 20 years ago, now it does, and it's becoming cheaper as time goes by.
At this rate, it's not a matter of policy. Even though we are improving and still have much more work, cleaner energy will be the economically logical option.
We live in the safest, most prosperous time, and it will only get better
Homicide rates are at an all-time low, declining by 50% in the US in the last 30 years. In Colombia, they are down 52% since 1990
Since the last century, we are 96% less likely to die in a car crash and 99% less likely to die in a plane than in 1970
200 years ago, 90% of the world lived in extreme poverty. Now, it's less than 10%
We will be healthier
25 years ago, getting HIV was a death sentence. It's not anymore. Now you can live with HIV for decades.
Over the past 28 years, cancer death rates have fallen 32% in the US.
Not to mention the potential of revolutionary, life-altering technologies like 3D printing of organs, Gene Therapy, and nanotechnology.
We won't have an overpopulation problem
Average population growth peaked around 1970 and has been declining ever since.
Improvements in economic performance and education are followed by reduced numbers of children per woman. China and India's population growth rates have been declining for decades.
UN models expect the population to peak around the year 2100
Some people even worry about the opposite problem, population collapse. Much of the developed world has been below replacement levels for years.
AI will help us solve more complex problems
Narrow artificial intelligence has already beat humans at Chess, Go, driving, some diagnostic image recognition and has been used to develop new antibiotics.
We might see an intelligence explosion that leads to General Artificial Intelligence in our lifetimes. This might be the most significant event we get to see, and I'm very excited and nervous about it.
Humanity will reach Mars within our lifetime
Papa Musk has said that the only way for humanity to be able to survive major catastrophes, like colossal asteroid impacts, is to have people live on multiple planets.
I believe in the next few decades, humans will set foot on Mars and start the journey to becoming a multi-planetary species.
Since the beginning of time, every civilization of humans has thought they were living near the end. I don't know why. I guess it makes us feel special? Like maybe if you were there for the end, you get to sit at the cool table when you get to heaven and be friends with Jesus and Aslan and Harambe.
We're not that special. We're probably closer to the beginning of this whole human experiment than the end, and that's a good thing.
I'm not saying we will live in utopias, all our problems will be fixed, and we'll just dance naked in the fields. Although if that's your thing, don't let anyone stop you. It sounds kind of fun.
We'll always face challenging problems, but each one will hopefully be better than the last. We used to have global famines that killed millions. We don't anymore because we learned about agriculture and fertilizers. Sure, these solutions probably accelerated climate change, but at least we bought a couple of decades to solve that problem before another imminent death of millions. And now it looks like we may solve climate change too. Other problems will follow, and we'll get to work on those.
It's a process; we're learning as we go. Have some compassion for humanity. We may not get things right the first time, but I think we're generally going in the right direction.
These environmental zealots and haters have become anti-human. They worship nature but conveniently exclude humans from it. As if we humans weren't a part of this planetary ecosystem, and we just popped out from the ass crack of a power plant with the explicit intention of putting plastic straws up turtles' noses.
We're part of nature too. So is our learning process. So are our mistakes.
We are the way that nature became conscious of itself. As evolution tried to narrow down more creative ways to store and maintain life that could withstand harsh conditions, we emerged as a vehicle for life.
By the looks of it, humans are nature's best chance to keep life going outside of Earth. I haven't looked into how much progress dolphins have made in terms of rocketry and space travel, but my gut tells me they're pretty far behind.
And if I were a betting man, and I am, I would say I don't think any other species is even trying.
So it's on us to keep this whole life thing going. Frankly, I'm excited to see where we go. If you're excited about it too, let's have some non-depressing brunch. Otherwise, say hi to your stupid cat for me.
Notes:
I know some of the Geo-political events of the last years seem to interfere with the positive trends. Still, I remain optimistic in the long run.
I may be wrong about some of these, but I don't think the sentiment of being optimistic about humanity is wrong. Some people think it's cool to be cynical and pessimistic about humanity. It's not.
Sources:
Kurzgesagt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw&t=17s&ab_channel=Kurzgesagt%E2%80%93InaNutshell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMo3nZHVrZ4&ab_channel=Kurzgesagt%E2%80%93InaNutshell
Steven Pinker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ&t=402s&ab_channel=TED
Our World in Data
https://ourworldindata.org/homicides
Cancer.org
https://www.cancer.org/latest-news/facts-and-figures-2022.html
MIT News
https://news.mit.edu/2020/artificial-intelligence-identifies-new-antibiotic-0220
Wait But Why
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-life.html
